P1Pred. Grid P1
RussellMercedes
53.7%Win Prob
P1P2 medianP3
Podium82%
Points97%
DNF3%
σ1.4
PRE-QUALIGrid is predicted by a separate qualifying model — race-finish probabilities propagate that uncertainty.Race JUL 19, 2026· IN 8 DAYS
Predicted Podium
Full Field
#DriverWinPodiumPointsDNF
1
Mercedes · σ 1.4
53.7%
82%
97%
3%2
Ferrari · σ 1.6
21.3%
69%
95%
5%3
Mercedes · σ 2.0
9.4%
58%
96%
3%4
Ferrari · σ 1.7
6.3%
44%
95%
5%5
McLaren · σ 1.9
4.6%
25%
94%
5%6
Red Bull · σ 1.9
1.6%
11%
93%
6%7
McLaren · σ 2.2
1.9%
9%
93%
3%8
Red Bull · σ 1.9
0.7%
2%
90%
6%9
RB F1 Team · σ 2.0
0.6%
1%
74%
6%10
Alpine F1 Team · σ 2.2
0.0%
0%
65%
2%11
RB F1 Team · σ 2.0
0.0%
0%
50%
3%12
Audi · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
24%
7%13
Alpine F1 Team · σ 2.2
0.0%
0%
22%
2%14
Audi · σ 2.0
0.0%
0%
5%
7%15
Williams · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
3%
8%16
Haas F1 Team · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
1%
6%17
Haas F1 Team · σ 2.0
0.0%
0%
1%
2%18
Williams · σ 2.2
0.0%
0%
0%
7%19
Cadillac F1 Team · σ 1.8
0.0%
0%
0%
11%20
Aston Martin · σ 1.8
0.0%
0%
0%
10%21
Cadillac F1 Team · σ 1.6
0.0%
0%
0%
10%22
Aston Martin · σ 1.6
0.0%
0%
0%
11%Swing Factors
WET RACEHeavy rain throughout
RUS53.7% → 33.0%-20.7%
LEC21.3% → 14.2%-7.1%
ANT9.4% → 6.2%-3.1%
HEAVY SCMultiple safety cars
RUS53.7% → 43.5%-10.2%
LEC21.3% → 18.8%-2.5%
ANT9.4% → 9.4%+0.0%
CLEAN RACEDry, no SC, low chaos
RUS53.7% → 58.6%+4.9%
LEC21.3% → 21.1%-0.2%
ANT9.4% → 8.4%-1.0%
Team Scenarios
1-2 Finish
mercedes21.1%
ferrari5.6%
Both on Podium
mercedes44.4%
ferrari24.9%
mclaren1.4%
Both in Points
mercedes93.7%
ferrari90.4%
mclaren88.0%
red bull83.9%
rb32.7%
Backtest · 2025
Podium Hits78%2.3 of 3 podium spots
Winner Hit63%Top-prob driver = actual winner
Pole Hit17%Pole margins are often <0.05s
Top-3 Quali Hit64%1.9 of 3 front-row slots
Mean Brier (Win)0.61Lower is better · uniform ≈ 0.95