P1Pred. Grid P1
NorrisMcLaren
39.6%Win Prob
P1P2 medianP3
Podium73%
Points94%
DNF6%
σ1.6
PRE-QUALIGrid is predicted by a separate qualifying model — race-finish probabilities propagate that uncertainty.Race OCT 11, 2026· IN 2 DAYS
Predicted Podium
Full Field
#DriverWinPodiumPointsDNF
1
McLaren · σ 1.6
39.6%
73%
94%
6%2
Red Bull · σ 1.6
29.7%
70%
94%
6%3
Ferrari · σ 1.7
9.2%
56%
95%
5%4
Ferrari · σ 1.8
7.2%
39%
94%
6%5
Mercedes · σ 2.0
5.5%
26%
94%
5%6
Red Bull · σ 1.9
2.9%
14%
94%
6%7
Mercedes · σ 2.2
4.7%
18%
95%
4%8
McLaren · σ 2.2
1.2%
4%
87%
6%9
RB F1 Team · σ 1.9
0.0%
0%
77%
4%10
Alpine F1 Team · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
54%
4%11
Alpine F1 Team · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
47%
3%12
RB F1 Team · σ 2.3
0.0%
0%
40%
2%13
Audi · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
18%
7%14
Audi · σ 2.2
0.0%
0%
9%
6%15
RB F1 Team · σ 2.0
0.0%
0%
7%
3%16
Haas F1 Team · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
1%
8%17
Williams · σ 2.0
0.0%
0%
0%
10%18
Williams · σ 1.9
0.0%
0%
0%
11%19
Haas F1 Team · σ 2.0
0.0%
0%
0%
4%20
Aston Martin · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
0%
12%21
Cadillac F1 Team · σ 1.7
0.0%
0%
0%
15%22
Cadillac F1 Team · σ 1.7
0.0%
0%
0%
11%23
Aston Martin · σ 1.7
0.0%
0%
0%
16%Swing Factors
WET RACEHeavy rain throughout
NOR39.6% → 22.1%-17.5%
VER29.7% → 18.0%-11.7%
HAM9.2% → 8.8%-0.4%
HEAVY SCMultiple safety cars
NOR39.6% → 31.1%-8.5%
VER29.7% → 24.0%-5.7%
HAM9.2% → 9.9%+0.7%
CLEAN RACEDry, no SC, low chaos
NOR39.6% → 43.5%+3.9%
VER29.7% → 31.6%+1.9%
HAM9.2% → 7.6%-1.5%
Team Scenarios
1-2 Finish
ferrari3.3%
red bull1.7%
mclaren0.6%
Both on Podium
ferrari15.6%
red bull7.7%
mercedes2.4%
mclaren2.1%
Both in Points
mercedes89.6%
ferrari89.3%
red bull88.9%
mclaren82.1%
rb32.3%
Backtest · 2025
Podium Hits78%2.3 of 3 podium spots
Winner Hit63%Top-prob driver = actual winner
Pole Hit17%Pole margins are often <0.05s
Top-3 Quali Hit64%1.9 of 3 front-row slots
Mean Brier (Win)0.61Lower is better · uniform ≈ 0.95