P1Pred. Grid P1
AntonelliMercedes
51.6%Win Prob
P1P2 medianP3
Podium79%
Points98%
DNF2%
σ1.7
PRE-QUALIGrid is predicted by a separate qualifying model — race-finish probabilities propagate that uncertainty.Race SEP 6, 2026· IN 12 DAYS
Predicted Podium
Full Field
#DriverWinPodiumPointsDNF
1
Mercedes · σ 1.7
51.6%
79%
98%
2%2
Mercedes · σ 1.7
26.8%
73%
97%
3%3
Red Bull · σ 1.6
7.5%
55%
94%
6%4
Ferrari · σ 1.7
5.6%
42%
96%
4%5
Ferrari · σ 1.9
4.1%
26%
95%
5%6
McLaren · σ 2.0
2.3%
14%
95%
5%7
McLaren · σ 1.9
1.1%
6%
94%
4%8
Red Bull · σ 2.1
1.0%
6%
91%
5%9
RB F1 Team · σ 1.7
0.0%
0%
80%
2%10
RB F1 Team · σ 1.8
0.0%
0%
66%
3%11
Audi · σ 1.9
0.0%
0%
36%
5%12
RB F1 Team · σ 1.9
0.0%
0%
31%
2%13
Audi · σ 1.9
0.0%
0%
13%
6%14
Alpine F1 Team · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
9%
2%15
Alpine F1 Team · σ 2.1
0.0%
0%
5%
2%16
Williams · σ 1.9
0.0%
0%
0%
7%17
Haas F1 Team · σ 1.8
0.0%
0%
0%
7%18
Williams · σ 2.0
0.0%
0%
0%
6%19
Haas F1 Team · σ 1.9
0.0%
0%
0%
4%20
Aston Martin · σ 1.9
0.0%
0%
0%
9%21
Cadillac F1 Team · σ 1.7
0.0%
0%
0%
13%22
Cadillac F1 Team · σ 1.6
0.0%
0%
0%
11%23
Aston Martin · σ 1.5
0.0%
0%
0%
12%Swing Factors
WET RACEHeavy rain throughout
ANT51.6% → 29.3%-22.3%
RUS26.8% → 17.6%-9.3%
VER7.5% → 10.2%+2.7%
HEAVY SCMultiple safety cars
ANT51.6% → 40.8%-10.8%
RUS26.8% → 22.4%-4.5%
VER7.5% → 9.8%+2.3%
CLEAN RACEDry, no SC, low chaos
ANT51.6% → 55.1%+3.5%
RUS26.8% → 28.6%+1.7%
VER7.5% → 6.2%-1.3%
Team Scenarios
1-2 Finish
mercedes32.1%
ferrari1.2%
Both on Podium
mercedes55.5%
ferrari6.3%
red bull2.0%
Both in Points
mercedes94.3%
ferrari91.1%
mclaren88.9%
red bull86.1%
rb68.9%
Backtest · 2025
Podium Hits78%2.3 of 3 podium spots
Winner Hit63%Top-prob driver = actual winner
Pole Hit17%Pole margins are often <0.05s
Top-3 Quali Hit64%1.9 of 3 front-row slots
Mean Brier (Win)0.61Lower is better · uniform ≈ 0.95